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April 15, 2006

Scrambling for Magic Number in the Attorney General's Race

By Jonathan P. Hicks

It doesn't take a person steeped in the political culture of New York State to know that it is impossible for all six candidates running in the same race to receive 25 percent of the vote.

And that is the problem confronting five of the six candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for attorney general. With the party convention in Buffalo only a month and a half away, the candidates are working feverishly to reach the magic number, the support of 25 percent of the convention delegates, to qualify automatically for a spot on the primary ballot.

The failure to get that 25 percent could spell doom for at least two or three of the candidates in the crowded field, forcing them to mount costly and cumbersome petition drives to get on the ballot, or to pull out.

Even some of the candidates agree that Andrew M. Cuomo, who was housing secretary in the Clinton administration, will win enough delegates' votes to get on the ballot, and perhaps even get 50 percent. For the others, the scramble is on, as they try furiously to court party leaders and show their strength. But none of them would say how far they are from that goal at the moment.

"We're working hard and very productively on the delegate votes for the convention, said Assemblyman Richard Brodsky of Westchester, one of the candidates. "We're comfortable where we are now and we're making good progress. I look forward to being on the ballot as a result of the convention vote."

He noted -- as have many other Democrats throughout the state -- that Mr. Cuomo, the son of the former governor Mario Cuomo, has put together an impressive array of political and union endorsements. But Mr. Brodsky accused Mr. Cuomo of "trying to shut down the convention and accumulate as many delegates as he can because he's not strong with the voters."

"He's well known, but he's not strong," Mr. Brodsky said.

Failing to get the 25 percent would force candidates to undertake a six-week petition drive to collect 15,000 valid signatures of Democratic voters in the state. The 15,000 signatures would have to include at least 100 in each of 16 of the state's 29 Congressional districts.

Among the other candidates for attorney general, Mark Green is viewed as having a shot at getting the 25 percent next month, while some do not rule out Denise O'Donnell, a former federal prosecutor from the Buffalo area, who could capture support from upstate delegates.

Aides to Ms. O'Donnell's campaign said their candidate is making a strong effort to win delegate votes. "She has been traveling and speaking to political clubs and Democratic organizations in every part of the state," said Jack O'Donnell, the candidate's son and campaign manager.

"We feel that we will get our 25 percent," Mr. O'Donnell said. "But we're perfectly prepared to do petitions, if we have to."

Indeed, most of the candidates, while expressing hope of getting 25 percent at the convention, are already beginning to plan strategies to conduct a statewide grass-roots campaign to secure petition signatures. But those petition drives can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

One candidate, Sean Patrick Maloney, said that he saw little chance that he will get the 25 percent at the convention and that he was already planning his drive to collect signatures. Mr. Maloney, a former aide to Bill Clinton, acknowledged that he was viewed by many Democratic leaders as a political outsider and that delegates were likelier to vote for a candidate with whom they have long-standing relationships.

"We're going to go to the convention and to fight as hard as we can to get on the ballot," Mr. Maloney said. "But you can't run the race in the lane that I'm in and expect to get on the ballot at the convention. So, I wouldn't expect to get on the ballot at the convention. But it's 100 percent certain that I'll get on through petitioning."

The petitioning process is expensive because candidates generally hire election lawyers to review the forms to be certain the signatures are valid, and because campaign workers are dispatched throughout the state to collect signatures.

Mr. Cuomo's effort to get on the ballot has been helped by his endorsements from some of the largest county Democratic organizations, including those of Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx, as well as several counties in Central and Western New York. Indeed, Mr. Cuomo has spent much of the last year speaking at Democratic county dinners throughout the state in an effort to build support within the structure of the party.

"It's clear that Andrew will be the designee of the party," said Charlie King, another candidate for attorney general. "I expect that there is going to be, at most, one other candidate getting on at the convention. And we're certainly in the mix to be that candidate."

Mr. Green, the candidate who is closest to Mr. Cuomo in the polls, said he is "optimistically working hard" on getting the 25 percent in Buffalo.

"I think I'm doing very well, given that some of the large county organizations have supported competitors," said Mr. Green, a former New York City public advocate. He explained that he was on the phone regularly with uncommitted delegates.

"I think I'm doing well with the individual state committee members," Mr. Green said. "And I'm optimistic. But if we should fail, we'll get on the ballot with petitions and shoe leather. Either way, all the primary voters on September 12 will see a number of aspirants. And they won't know or care how they got there."